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Lehrstuhl für Biogeografie

Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein

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Jaeschke, A*; Tjaden, N; Thomas, S M; Beierkuhnlein, C: Modelling the risk of the establishment of Aedes albopictus in Germany using fine-resolution cliimate data
Vortrag, National Symposium on Zoonoses Research 2016, Berlin: 13.10.2016 - 14.10.2016

Background and objectives: The ongoing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in Germany leads to an increasing health risk for the human population. If the climatic conditions for the establishment of the mosquito as well as the transmission of diseases are fulfilled, autochthonous infections in Germany can no longer be excluded. Therewith, serious health risks will become very likely. Hence, areas at risk of vector establishment need to be identified to support monitoring and surveillance measures. Materials and methods: We applied an ensemble of correlative species distribution models to assess the current and near future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus in Germany. Models were fitted using European occurrence records and bioclimatic variables taken from Worldclim (2,5 arcmin resolution). Model projections for Germany were done with Euro-LST satellite data with 250 m resolution. Results: Mainly, three areas within Germany could be identified as being currently climatically suitable: parts of Baden-Württemberg, Saarland and North Rhine-Westphalia. Future projections indicate increasing suitability in Germany within the next years. With increasing suitable areas the establishment of the vector becomes more likely in the near future. Conclusion: With fine-resolution climate data current and future areas at risk are highlighted. Based on this information areas for monitoring can be identified.
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