Vortrag, IBS 2015 - 7th International Conference of the International Biogeography Society, University of Bayreuth: 08.01.2015 - 12.01.2015
Current developments in the global spread of mosquitoes as vectors of pathogens emphasize the importance and urgency of well-informed projections concerning the expectable future development. To identify current and future areas at risk of diseases the combination of ecological knowledge and statistical species distribution models is required. We developed global current and future risk maps for Aedes albopictus – vector for Dengue – with special focus on the cold tolerance of the vector and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the pathogen. Modelling was performed with R and the implemented package biomod2, which allows the use of an ensemble of different modelling algorithms. The distribution of Ae. albopictus is projected to increase with the statistical model. However, temperature-induced reproductive constraints as well as the temperature-dependence of the virus amplification affect the projected increase. We illustrate that assessing the risk of a spread of diseases requires the combination of projections for vector and pathogen as well as the inclusion of ecological constraints to yield a more realistic estimation.