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Lehrstuhl für Biogeografie

Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein

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Tjaden, N*; Thomas, S M; Jaeschke, A; Beierkuhnlein, C: The Pilot Project “Zoonose RISKTOOL“: General Concept and First Results
Poster, Junior Scientist Zoonoses Meeting 2014, Hannover: 02.06.2014 - 04.06.2014

Work on the “Zoonose RISKTOOL“ started in October 2013 as a Pilot Project under the umbrella of the German Research Platform for Zoonoses with the aim to create a modelling framework for the continental to regional scale risk assessment of vector-borne diseases based on environmental and ecological drivers. We combinine classic correlative species distribution models for vector species with process-based modules, incorporating additional factors such as the temperature-dependence of the Extrinsic Incubation Period of the pathogen or winter survival of the arthropod vectors. This dynamical modelling approach is expected to gain more accurate results than simple species distribution models while at the same time being much easier to realize than full-grown epidemiological models based on the basic reproductive number R0. Written in the well-established open-source statistical scripting language R, the RISKTOOL will be free to anyone to use, share, and modify according to their individual research requirements. Here we present the basic structure of our modelling framework as well as some preliminary results for our first test case, Dengue in Europe.
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