Vortrag, BayCEER Workshop 2013: Tracing the Life of Research Ideas, University of Bayreuth, H8, GEO: 10.10.2013
My PhD-thesis is coming to an end. Started with the working title “Potential climate change induced range changes of animal species protected by the EU Habitats Directive” – with the aim to project potential range changes with the help of climate envelopes – it has developed over the years to a more methodological oriented work. After the first model runs it became clear that most assumptions in climate envelope modelling are rather simple. Although lots of techniques and tools were developed and improved within the last years the integration of key ecological processes, such as dispersal or biotic interactions, is still at the beginning. Hence, the aim to extend climate envelope models came to the fore and led to several modelling approaches that were developed – including two ways to model habitat types consisting of characteristic plant species, the consideration of observed dispersal distances of dragonflies and the comparison of different approaches to include biotic interactions. These approaches are first results. Others published similar approaches and new ideas in this field in the meantime. This raised ideas for further developments regarding the consideration of biotic interactions in climate envelope modelling ranging from multi-species interactions to own experimental studies that serve as data basis.