Masterarbeit

Modelling Current and Future Habitat Suitability for the Rock Dove (Columba livia) as a Reservoir Host Species of West Nile Virus in Northern Europe.

Patrick Hagest (01/2025-07/2025)

Betreuer: Stephanie Thomas, Carl Beierkuhnlein

West Nile Virus (WNV) has emerged as an increasing public health concern in Europe due to rising human infection rates. While the virus is well established in tropical countries, the persistence in colder climates such as in Northern Europe is strongly influenced by the presence of competent reservoir host species, which play a critical role in its transmission cycle. Climate-driven shifts in the distribution of these reservoir host species present growing challenges for both public health and biodiversity management in affected countries. This study models the current and future habitat suitability of the ancestral rock dove (Columba livia) in Northern Europe, with particular emphasis on its role as a potential reservoir host for WNV. Using MaxEnt species distribution modelling, habitat suitability was projected under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 climate scenarios, employing three Global Climate Models (GCMs). Results indicate a northward expansion of suitable habitats by the end of the 21st century, with projected gains of 39% under SSP2-4.5 and 52% under SSP3-7.0, particularly in coastal and inland regions of Fennoscandia. The overlap between these newly suitable habitats and human population suggests an increased risk of WNV transmission in previously unaffected regions, with a projected rise in the affected population by 56% (SSP2-4.5) and 17% (SSP3-7.0), respectively. These findings highlight the necessity of integrating ecological, climatic, and epidemiological factors into both conservation strategies and public health planning, particularly in the context of climate-induced range shifts.