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Department of Biogeography

Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein

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Jaeschke, A; Tjaden, N; Thomas, S M*; Beierkuhnlein, C: Modelling the risk of autochthonous disease transmissions by Aedes albopictus in Germany using fine-resolution climate data
Poster, IECID 2017 Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases, Trieste: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-19

The ongoing global spread of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus leads to an increasing health risk for the human population. In Europe, Germany is currently at the invasion front. If the climatic conditions for the establishment of the mosquito as well as the transmission of diseases are fulfilled, autochthonous infections in Germany can no longer be excluded. Hence, areas at risk of vector establishment and disease transmission need to be identified to support monitoring and surveillance measures. We applied correlative species distribution models to assess the current and near future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus in Germany. We further analysed the incidences of Dengue and Chikungunya in Germany between 2011 and 2015. Based on both information we developed risk classes for the autochthonous transmission of Dengue and Chikungunya in Germany under current climatic conditions. Models were fitted using European occurrence records and bioclimatic variables taken from Worldclim (2.5 arcmin resolution). Model projections for Germany were done with Euro-LST satellite data with 250 m resolution. Mainly, three areas within Germany could be identified as being currently climatically suitable for Ae. albopictus: parts of Baden-Württemberg, Saarland and North Rhine-Westphalia. Future projections indicate an increasing suitability in Germany. The highest incidences are mainly located in Southern Germany and larger cities. Hence, the currently highest risk of autochthonous disease transmission appears in Southwest Germany, especially Baden-Württemberg. With the projected increase in suitable areas, the establishment of the vector becomes more likely in the near future, therewith increasing the risk of autochthonous disease transmissions. With fine-resolution climate data current and future areas at risk of vector establishment are highlighted. Based on this together with the recent incidences of Dengue and Chikungunya areas for monitoring and surveillance can be identified.
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