Poster, IBS 2015 - 7th International Conference of the International Biogeography Society, University of Bayreuth: 2015-01-08 - 2015-01-12
The interplay between global warming and invasive arthropods in temperate zones is of utmost interest in terms of the potential expansions of vector-borne diseases. During the last years, Aedes japonicus, an aedine vector mosquito native in Korea, Japan, Taiwan, southern China and Russia, was found in Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands. Here, we modelled climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Aedes japonicus in Europe during the upcoming century using an ensemble of different modelling algorithms and a set of five different global climate models (biomod2; cesm1_bgc, fio_esm, giss_e2_r, inm_cm4, mpi_esm_lr; IPCC 5 scenarios rcp 4.5 and rcp 8.5). In parallel, we detected low temperature thresholds for Aedes japonicus egg survival under in a climate chamber experiment. We observe that the minimum temperature act as a stronger ecological constraint than the duration or diurnal temperature range of the treatment. Finally, we combined the outcome of the experimental procedures and species distribution models to substantially improve the compilation of risk maps by considering areas where an establishment of Aedes japonicus is unlikely due to winter conditions.