Talk, 9th Workshop on Vegetation Databases, Hamburg: 2010-02-24 - 2010-02-26
Recent climate change influences animals and plants as well as whole ecosystems. Projected future climate will lead to range shifts, not only of single species, but also of whole habitats. These shifts are one of the major challenges for nature conservation and demand appropriate approaches. One of these approaches is the modelling of future distributions. The modelling of climate change impacts on habitats, listed in Annex I of the European Habitats Directive, is one part of the project “Impacts of climate change on fauna, flora and habitats as well as adaptation strategies of nature conservation”, which is funded by the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (BfN). Based on the FLORKART database (BfN) and data from Article 17 Reports (EU Habitats Directive) we model the current and future distribution of selected Natura 2000 habitats in Germany and Europe. In our approach we use Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with different types of modelling algorithms. We try to integrate a couple of reasonable predictors like different climate variables, land use, dispersal ability, soil variables and biotic interactions. Here, we present preliminary results of modelled impacts on natural habitat types of community interest in Europe based on following research questions: 1. How does climate change influences the future distribution of habitats? 2. Which habitats will lose and which will win? Will new habitats arrive Germany that are not here, yet? 3. What are possible adaptation strategies for nature conservation?