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Department of Biogeography

Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein

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Englmeier, F*; Tjaden, NB; Thomas, S M; Nagels, K: Health economic estimation of a possible chikungunya transmission in Germany
Talk, National Symposium on Zoonoses Research, Berlin: 2018-10-17 - 2018-10-19

Background and objectives: Due to climate change threats of vector-borne virus infections, e.g. chikungunya, in Germany may emerge. Possible outbreaks entail not only health risks for humans but also economic consequences for the health system. This work aims to estimate the related cost of illness and the development of assessments which can be applied to other clinically relevant vector-borne virus infections. Materials and methods: We use a Markov model to analyse and project clinical and economic outcomes across German high risk areas. The acute and the possible chronic course (chronic arthritis) of chikungunya as well as the corresponding transition probabilities are shown on the basis of a flowchart. To determine the newly infected cases, the basic reproduction number, based on an SIR model, is used. Results: During the acute phase the assessed medical costs are relatively low compared to the indirect costs caused by absenteeism. However, the major cost drivers are both the indirect and direct costs of the chronic course. These costs account for about 80 % of total expenditure caused by an outbreak. Conclusion: Modelling of specific health economic consequences of possible outbreaks are needed for informed and future orientated health policy decision making on both preventive strategies and outbreak management. With regard to chikungunya infections the modelling helps to design care processes that focus on the chronic sequela of the infection in a prioritized way.
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