Vortrag, National Symposium on Zoonoses Research, Berlin: 17.10.2018 - 19.10.2018
Background and objectives: Intensity and extent of transmission of arboviruses, has increased markedly over the last decades. Autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya by Aedes albopictus was recorded in southern Europe where the invasive mosquito was already established and viraemic travelers had imported the virus. As Ae. albopictus populations now show a spreading tendency into Germany, we look at which counties are most likely to see negative effects. Materials and methods: We use data from the RKI Survnet database to map where the chikungunya and dengue incidence rate of viraemic travelers has been highest in the past. We build an environmental niche model to show climatic suitable regions in Germany for an establishment of the vector now or in the near future. These two factors together are then used to identify counties that require raised attention in terms of mosquito control, surveillance and monitoring. Results: Freiburg im Breisgau, Speyer and Karlsruhe are the German cities with the highest likelihood of autochthonous transmission of Aedes albopictus-borne arboviruses. In addition, 8.8 million people live in regions considered to show an elevated hazard potential assuming further spread of the mosquito. Conclusion: Beside the Upper Rhine Valley, the Lower Rhine area in North Rhine-Westphalia requires special attention. Here, both incidence rates and climatic suitability for the vector are high, and infrastructure for mosquito surveillance, monitoring and control is widely missing.