Poster, National Symposium on Zoonoses Research, Berlin: 17.10.2018 - 19.10.2018
Abstract:
Background and objectives: Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As consequences of climate change become evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. For this, different concepts and approaches have emerged from different fields. Materials and methods: Looking at the recent literature published in 2014–2017 from a European perspective, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, data driving them, vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. Results: We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. However, effects of extreme weather events, precipitation regimes and seasonality on vector-borne diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and complicated by a lack of field- and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods. Conclusion: Technical limitations aside, communication will be key for future improvements in modelling vector-borne diseases. Most models are primarily limited through (non-) availability of the necessary calibration data. Modellers need to make more clear what is needed to those who are in the position to produce the data in question.