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Tjaden, N; Caminade, C; Beierkuhnlein, C; Thomas, S M: Modelling Mosquito-Borne Diseases in a Changing Climate: Current State-of-the-Art and Challenges in Cross-Disciplinary Research.
Poster, National Symposium on Zoonoses Research, Berlin: 2018-10-17 - 2018-10-19

Abstract:
Background and objectives: Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As consequences of climate change become evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. For this, different concepts and approaches have emerged from different fields. Materials and methods: Looking at the recent literature published in 2014–2017 from a European perspective, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, data driving them, vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. Results: We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. However, effects of extreme weather events, precipitation regimes and seasonality on vector-borne diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and complicated by a lack of field- and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods. Conclusion: Technical limitations aside, communication will be key for future improvements in modelling vector-borne diseases. Most models are primarily limited through (non-) availability of the necessary calibration data. Modellers need to make more clear what is needed to those who are in the position to produce the data in question.

last modified 2019-06-25